Monday, September 20, 2010

Christine O'Donnell vs. Karl Rove: Statistics Don't Lie

After last Tuesday's primary election victory by Christine O'Donnell over Mike Castle in Delaware's senate race, Karl Rove appeared on the Fox News Channel to offer his analysis. Rove shocked viewers and the blogosphere with his derogatory comments questioning O'Donnell's character.

Since Rove continues to criticize O'Donnell in language usually employed by political opponents, conservatives have been asking whether Rove had a personal stake in the Castle campaign or a grudge against O'Donnell. What we do know is Rove's track record in Delaware.

In the 2000 presidential election, Rove's most famous client, George W. Bush, lost Delaware to Al Gore by a 13.1% margin of victory. In 2004, Bush lost Delaware to John Kerry by a 7.6% margin of victory.

Two days after her primary upset, Rasmussen Reports published poll results showing O'Donnell trailing her Democratic opponent, Chris Coons, by 11%. In short, O'Donnell is beginning her Delaware senate race closer to victory than Bush was at the end of his Rove-guided 2000 presidential campaign in Delaware. If O'Donnell narrows the gap or scores a win, she will have outperformed Rove in Delaware.


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